- Deteriorating economic fundamentals
- Historic fall in the value of rupee
- Stubbornly high inflation
- Steep fall in the GDP growth
- Extremely weak corporate performance
- Sharp stock markets losses
- Across the board job cuts
- High EMIs
- High fuel prices... and so on.
A dismal situation indeed!
Yet, there a few rays of sunshine breaking through the ominously dark clouds.
a) The monsoon has been good this year. This will lead to higher food production and hence some respite from food inflation. Also, rural economy will do well. This, going forward, will provide the much-needed boost to the overall economic growth.
b) US economy appears to have recovered. Europe too has stabilized after giving the world some very anxious moments. This has brought back smile to the IT industry. Exports too should benefit from these turnarounds.
c) China's growth has slowed down. Moreover, this was an investment-led growth. The focus now seems to be shifting towards consumption-led growth. This could mean considerable softening of the commodity prices...a boon for India.
e) Elections are near. So we might see the end of the present Govt., which undeniably has been responsible to bring us to this economic abyss. While Shri Vajpayee may no longer be active in politics, his economic ideas and economic team are waiting to pull India back. I hope they are given the chance to prove their worth...again (See '3 economic policies of the Vajpayee Govt. that catapulted India's GDP growth').
It is these positives that give immense hope that a turnaround is not impossible; that the gloomy forecast could be reversed; that the derailed economy could again be put back on the high-growth track.
